Years ago I had a great mentor who had lived for a time in Japan growing up.  He taught me that the symbol for Crisis in Japanese was made of 2 symbols - the symbol for danger and the symbol for opportunity.

If you’re a real estate agent and you are not significantly concerned at the danger looming right now you are blind, stupid, mis-informed, or only hearing what you want to.   Don’t believe me?  I’m willing to risk the ire that comes from not following the narrative to let you know truthfully that everything is not OK.  The industry is about to go through a major crisis and there is definitely danger for those following an incorrect narrative.

A survey of hundreds of real estate agents in the last 48 hours since the NAR Announcement has run the gamut of the above levels of feelings and more.  The very few that say that “nothing will change” are mostly those in leadership positions who are ultimately tasked with holding things together.  They will have a lot on their plates trying to keep the masses calm, disseminating the narrative, and doing everything they can to avoid panic.   And even they, when they talk long enough, if you’re listening closely you will hear them say “nothing’s going to change, … except this might be a little different, and that will be a little different, and a few other things …”  So nothing will change except the things that are going to change, got it.

In 2001 I had the opportunity to meet, and work with, the President of Time Warner Cable in the Triangle, NC area.  He told me some of the things coming down the pike for technology at that time.  I distinctly remember him telling me “One day you’re not going to need Blockbuster, you will be able to order movies online at home.”  For those that lived any part of their adulthood at this time you understand how mind-blowing and inconceivable that idea might have been to me.   

Years later I can clearly remember thinking one evening, as I was driving home past an empty building that used to be a Blockbuster “It’s usually the ideas that are the most inconceivable of how business will change that are the ones that change things the most and people seem to “never see coming”.

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They say that the best way to boil frogs is to turn on the water once they are in it and gradually increase the heat.  Do not boil the water and then try to put the frog in, it will jump out.   The slow increase of the heat is something the frog never notices until it’s too late.

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Danger

There are amazing opportunities that lie in the coming changes.  Amazing opportunities and an amazing transfer of wealth.  Which is why I would be EXTREMELY ATTENTIVE not to the information you’re hearing, but from WHOM you’re hearing it.  If you’re ready to stand up and think for yourself, NOW is the time to start.

The first thing you need to be aware of, to properly make sense of the narrative you hear, are all those that stand to lose the most in the coming industry revolution:

National Association of Realtors 

NAR for all its bluster about what they do to make the world a better place makes more the more members there are.  Simple as that.   They currently “boast” over 1.55 Million members.   The last thing they want is a mass exodus from the industry of agents.  Never forget that NAR is responsible for the WORST NEGOTIATION ever in the real estate industry.  They sold out their members by selling the rights to the MLS data to companies like Zillow, Realtor.Com and others.  So in turn these companies could then sell those leads back to you.  Brilliant model for everyone involved except the agent, the one that NAR was supposed to protect.

Those that don’t think change is coming are betting their futures on a company  that has a less than stellar track record when it comes to important negotiations.

Coaches  

When I started in the real estate industry the coaches were elite, high brow folks who brought a ton of growth and professionalism.  They were highly experienced and highly successful.  Very few agents were even in coaching, and it was reserved for thost at the top.  Many of those coaches put YEARS of training into their craft, wise folks, that you couldn’t learn enough from.  

In the last 10 years the coaching industry has grown by the 10s of thousands of un-professionals.  Very few of them at the level of the aforementioned group, even less with any formal training, and all of them with one thing in mind, their own income.  You can’t swing a golf club without hitting a “real estate coach” these days, and agents suffer from coaching-fatigue.   Many of these coaches moved into coaching so they could move out of selling.  They would really rather you keep paying for coaching (IE Pay them to coach you on a script on how to tell your clients that all is well and there this is no crisis) than to have to go back to selling.

Local Realtor & MLS Boards   

There are ZERO laws stopping someone, anyone, with a state real estate license from opening up their own shop, not joining a local Realtor board or an MLS, offering 3% commissions and gobbling up listings in the area by the hundreds.  If one of their main raisons d’etre of these organizations is to protect the co-op commission, and there is no co-op commission to protect, and half the listings available on the market aren’t in their system, what will be their value proposition to the agent?   

The next obvious move for these organizations is to offer better technology, and now they are playing a game they can’t win …    It won’t take a lot of agents to topple the apple cart when it comes to collapsing an MLS.  It will only take a few at the top, that are listing heavy and the whole thing falls over.

Zillow, Realtor.Com, and every other home search online system out there

These companies HAVE IT GOOD right now!   They get the data from us and then sell it back to us!   Their entire business model collapses if there are no MLSs to get data from.   This will be a GREAT THING for those that survive and take the time to create searchable websites -> something that can be done for roughly the same technology investment as they are currently making, and maintained by an hourly VA and AI.  The best part for the agent - for the very first time they will have ownership of their own data.  The entire loop of data that is being created by their current listings, to create buyer leads, that are then sold back to that agent, will be shortcut.  The data will be created and owned by the agent.   This is a HUGE WIN for agents.

So these companies will absolutely be part of the ones supporting the narrative that things aren’t changing, and all is well.    These companies have never had your interests at heart, and unless you’re a stockholder, they never will.

KW, EXP, HLPT, REAL, Mega-Teams, Sales Managers - Recruiters and any others that work off of a revenue sharing model based on a downline    

While these companies are likely going to be the ones that last the longest, and are most likely to still be around at the end of the shift, they will take a significant hit.   Recruiting incentives, and bonuses aside, what growth relies on most is agents in production.  Research any version of revenue sharing model out there and you will find that model is set up so that you will earn more off of 5 producing agents than you will from 100 unproductive agents.   Currently these companies agent count continues to rise and approximately 1/3 of the industry has a direct financial incentive to recruit another agent.  The last thing these companies, recruiters, and sales mangers  want is a shrinking pool of prospects.  They would have to completely redo the value proposition that got them where they are. When the new agent pipeline dry's up, and the market is saturated with this business model, the real fight for market share will begin and it will be all about who has the agents that produce the most.

Signs the Water Is Getting Warmer

The first signs that the water is getting warmer are usually the same.  A mix of denial, preemptive meetings to answer questions.  Talking points to use with clients.   Coaches will likely move their coaching more into the objection handling side of things.  The second signs will sound a lot like “well they really weren’t producing much anyway” as agents begin to drop out.  The first big round will likely happen at the next annual NAR Membership Dues collection where we could see an agent count loss in the 6 figures.  Other signs will be less subtle - if you’re paying attention.  The real estate pre-licensing schools will notice a dip in registrations, they will start combining classes, and maybe even see smaller companies sell out to the bigger ones.  Whatever they can do to survive, or get out from under the coming wave of change.

How many agents do we need?

Research will show that in 2023 there were roughly 4.22 Million homes sold in the US.   That represents about 2.7 homes sold for every member of NAR.   The average homes sold per agent in a year in the United States used to be over 8 homes per agent.   That means that roughly 500,000 agents could have easily handled the amount of volume in the US last year, probably without even being late to soccer practice once!  

The industry would have been fine without all the others … except all those selling something or recruiting, or that get paid by membership count, or those selling leads, etc.  You don't need a lot of experience to sell 8 homes, or coaching, or technology or "shiny objects" etc.

“If the real estate industry is a buffet agents are the ones bringing the food and everyone else brings a fork.”

A major amount of the people telling you not to freak out, and stay where you are, are the ones that stand to lose the most, and the ones that bring the least to the buffet table.  These, for the most part, are very bright people.  They are business minded, and growth minded, they know the all the scripts, all the quotes, and are usually better at selling than their prospects are at saying no.  They have worked hard to get where they are, and they are enjoying the lifestyle they have with the way things work now. They are also the ones most likely to create their next business model from the income they receive in the current model, as quickly as they can before that cashflow dries up.  They will not be public about their next move because they will not be bringing everyone with them on that ark.   Someone has to stay behind to turn the lights off.

The entire battlefield of this revolution will center around a conversation of value.   Which is why, what is to come, is as inevitable as the tides.  It has happened in every other industry, and it’s about to happen in this one.  

The real estate industry has refused to admit that it had a standard, whether or not we called it that, for a long time.   Those the “standard” actually benefitted most in the past were the highly skilled and experienced agents, protecting their commissions.  Why them?   Because a new agent would never be able to break into a market without attacking price.  The new to the industry agents would have had no chance competing on a value platform with the more experienced agents.   As it is - we have seen negotiations going on everyday in every market between agents willing to list for 6% and 5% for decades. 

The reason the top agents won, is because the newer agents ALSO had to guarantee a co-broker commission.  So they could only drop their commission fee so far.  Uncoupling the co-broker fee negates that.  The objection the top agents have not had to handle is the difference between 6% and 1%, or 6% and 2% in a conversation. Or 6% and $2500.   There is no script for that, so agents don’t want to think about it.  It’s soooo much easier to put their head in the sand and pretend it won’t happen.

It took one paragraph to get to a bottom price.  How long do you think it will take to get there in the market?   3 Months?   6 Months?  1 Year?   Don’t believe the last paragraph can happen?  Go back and reread it from the frame of mind of “Big Box Brand Real Estate Brokerage” 50/50 Split -> Keller Williams “70/30 With a Cap” -> EXP with “80/20 Split + Cap + Rev Share” -> “HLPT “flat fee + downline share income”. 

Something look familiar to you about that?  “It is as inevitable as the tides.”

Opportunity

As with every question of value, in all other industries, once you start the price war it will be a race to the bottom.  Those that last, and garner the most wealth, in the coming shift, are those that can figure out a way to deliver fantastic service for 2-3% and let buyer’s agents fend for themselves.  They will have systems, a support staff, and this will look very much like a small commercial real estate team/firm, attorney’s, engineer’s, or architect’s office.  The people that find the opportunity will be the ones that jump on AI, and learn how to create great services without it impacting their calendar.   They will be the ones unafraid to take listings without a buyer’s agent’s fee because it’s the right thing for the client (their TRUE fiduciary) even though it may be unpopular- if not wildly so by other agents.

These businesses will recognize they do not need coaches, they don’t need to build a huge downline, nor do they need any of the ancillary services, or online leads.   They will be (GASP!) Self sufficient.    A self sufficient agent is a huge threat to the current status quo.  

The thing that should worry you most and will play the biggest role in what shape this industry takes:

The one question no one wants to bring up, that will quickly be shut down in almost all real estate circles, the one that the “we can’t possibly be wrong about is”:  What if all this is actually GOOD for the clients, good for the industry, and good for the economy?   What if losing 500,000 + real estate agents was actually a positive thing for everyone except those that are currently vested in the status quo?    That question won’t be brought up because the natural conclusion to it is obsolescence - and that thought is currently too great to bear.  You can tell those most at risk of becoming obsolete- they will be the ones that fight the tide the hardest.

A successful business is one that gets a client to “the moment they experience the value of your service”.   The market is always seeking the “moment of value” and on a never ending search to experience that moment of value as quickly, and for the least cost is possibly can.  When a market realizes it can have the same or better experience for less, it does not go back to the way things were.   Blockbuster's will not be making a comeback anytime soon.

The Conclusion, or Future, Is Yours to Draw

None of the above is a commentary as to whether the coming changes ultimately will be right, or good for the agent … or good for the market … or good for the brokerage houses.    The coming change cannot be fought any more than it could have been by Blockbuster franchisees.  It is the natural progression of time, market demands, technology, and basic economics. 

Some will fight it, and others will fight it harder.

“The measure of intelligence is the ability to change.” — Albert Einstein

Others will see the truth of the crisis, the inevitability of what is to come, and they will take advantage of the opportunity and be around to design the future.  Those that do not adapt, no matter how loudly they shout their narrative at the coming tide, will not survive if they do not adapt quickly enough.

Here’s hoping those that survive design a future where agents:

• Don’t have to choose between their families and work

• Are respected for what they do

• Are properly taught how to run great businesses

• Are not targets for abuse, or worse, by predators

• Make a great living without all the unnecessary extra layers of hands in their pockets

• Serve the community at a higher level than their predecessors
  

Stay tuned - that design will be revealed in time.